Great traders think in terms of "is the expected value (win% × avg gain − loss% × avg loss) positive?" rather than "will this specific trade be right?" Long-term profitability depends on avg gain exceeding avg loss, not just a high win rate.
Basis of Expected Value
Expected value is foundational to probability. Even at a 40% win rate, if wins are 2× losses (RR=2.0), you profit long-term. Conversely, a 70% win rate will still deplete capital if a single loss is too large. This RR awareness is the basis for cutting losses short and letting winners run.
Evaluation Habit
Shift from judging every single trade to evaluating results in batches of 20–30 trades (a statistically meaningful sample size).