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Methodology

Statistical Edge (Positive Expectancy)

The mathematical basis for capital growth over a large sample size, derived from the combination of win rate and risk-reward ratio (RR). The "Law of Large Numbers" requires a high volume of trials under consistent rules to function.

How to Do It

Conduct backtesting on historical charts and continuously measure win rate and average RR in live forward testing.

Effect

Eliminates baseless intuitive trades and fosters "probabilistic thinking" that remains unshaken by temporary losses.

How to Use

1. Completely freeze entry/exit rules
2. Aggregate a minimum of 30–50 trade results
3. Confirm that expectancy is positive

※This diagnosis is for self-understanding only. It is not investment advice or a solicitation. All trading decisions are your own responsibility.

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